If the Chinese Buying Spree Is Over, Why Does the U.S. Housing Affordability Crisis Persist?

“Growing distrust between the United States and China has slowed the once steady flow of Chinese cash into America,” declares today’s New York Times, “with Chinese investment plummeting by nearly 90 percent since President Trump took office.”

If you live in a major American city, you’ve probably seen a lot of that investment flowing into neighborhoods around your home. So, what’s going to happen to your home value now that all those investors are sitting on the sidelines? In recent research, I tackled this question for the Dialogue of Civilisations Research Institute:

Continue reading “If the Chinese Buying Spree Is Over, Why Does the U.S. Housing Affordability Crisis Persist?”

The Federal Government Didn’t Lose the War on Poverty. It Retreated.

U.S. Poverty Rate, 1959 to 2009

In 1904, half the population of New York City lived below the poverty line.

Half. Can you imagine? The poor were so numerous that they nearly outnumbered everyone else.

Today, less than 20 percent of New Yorkers live in poverty. That’s still a serious problem, but it’s a far cry from 50 percent.

Clearly, we did something right.

But in today’s political arena, we don’t talk about what we did right. We talk about what we’re doing wrong. We spend so much time talking about our problems and failures that we seem to have forgotten our nation’s great victories.

This historical amnesia is a dangerous mistake. It poisons our hearts with pessimism. It blinds us to the lessons and solutions we need. Most New Yorkers have no idea how prevalent poverty used to be — or how their predecessors made it go away.

And they’re not the only ones. “We have spent $15 trillion from the federal government fighting poverty,” said Rep. Paul Ryan on Fox News last month, “and look at where we are, the highest poverty rates in a generation, 15 percent of Americans live in poverty.”

Ryan is speaking on behalf of millions of Americans who believe that the War on Poverty was a failure, when in fact it’s one of the greatest success stories in our nation’s history.

If Ryan thinks 15 percent is high, he should go back a hundred years when the poverty rate was three times that. Back then, the government didn’t officially measure poverty, but historians have reconstructed close approximations based on the cost of living and the distribution of household income in those days. Thanks to their calculations, we now know that 44 to 45 percent of Americans lived in poverty in the early 1910s.

A generation later, after the Great Depression and World War II, the poverty rate had fallen to 22 percent.

Can you imagine? They cut the poverty rate in half — from 44 percent to 22 percent — in only a couple decades.

As far as wars go, that’s an astonishing victory. It should be celebrated alongside Gettysburg and Normandy. It should be commemorated and committed to our children’s memories. It should be studied by our civilian leaders in the same way that battlefield strategy is studied by our military leaders.

On this particular battlefield, the strategy that paid off was the New Deal, President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s ambitious series of programs that created jobs for the unemployed, Social Security for the elderly, regulation for the bankers, a minimum wage for the workers, and legal protections for the labor unions.

But the war was not over. One in five Americans still lived below the poverty line. And so, on January 8, 1964, President Lyndon B. Johnson stood before Congress and made it official: “This administration today, here and now, declares unconditional war on poverty.”

Congress proceeded to embark on the Great Society, patching the holes left in Roosevelt’s New Deal. They expanded health insurance with Medicare for the elderly and Medicaid for the poor. They increased Social Security benefits and education funding for poor school districts. They established civil rights and a permanent food stamp program. They invested in urban redevelopment, rural development, and public transportation.

A decade later, the poverty rate bottomed out at 11 percent.

For the second time in half a century, the United States had cut the poverty rate in half — from 22 percent to 11 percent. And just as before, this extraordinary victory faded from our memories, and the policies that spawned it faded from our favor. We allowed labor laws to go unenforced, public investment to decline, and the minimum wage to stagnate even as the cost of living soared. We deregulated banking, and we stopped trying to get enough jobs for the unemployed or enough education funding for poor school districts.

So it’s no surprise that the poverty rate rose to 15 percent during the Great Recession. A century of progress has been forgotten.

Eliminating that final 15 percent is one of the great tasks before us in the 21st century. As we craft new solutions, let us not forget to preserve the old ones — and to honor the memory of those who worked so hard to give us so much.

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This op-ed was published in Friday’s South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

A Lesson in Power, Courtesy of the Bangladesh Garment Industry

The bodies have been placed in coffins. The mourners have draped themselves in black.

It was one of the deadliest industrial accidents in history. Over 100 people died in that clothing factory.

It made headline news all across the world. Surely you’ve read about it by now.

When they tried to escape, the factory workers found the doors locked. It was standard practice at the sweatshop. The managers didn’t want the workers to take unauthorized breaks.

So they burned alive.

Louis Waldman happened to be nearby when the fire started. He followed the sound of pandemonium until he reached the blazing factory. He told the New York Times what he saw: “Horrified and helpless, the crowds — I among them — looked up at the burning building, saw girl after girl appear at the reddened windows, pause for a terrified moment, and then leap to the pavement below, to land as mangled, bloody pulp. This went on for what seemed a ghastly eternity. Occasionally a girl who had hesitated too long was licked by pursuing flames and, screaming with clothing and hair ablaze, plunged like a living torch to the street.”

You probably think I’m talking about the garment factory in Bangladesh, where 112 people died last weekend. But I’m not.

I’m talking about the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory in Greenwich Village, New York.

The date was March 25, 1911. One hundred forty-six people died that day.

New York City wouldn’t experience another disaster of that magnitude for another ninety years. That date would be September 11, 2001.

It’s hard to believe that such an atrocity happened right here in our own backyard. We’ve become so accustomed to workplace regulations and civil negotiations that we’ve forgotten what factory life was like before the Great Depression.

Back then, labor unions were even rarer than they are today. Most strikes ended at the barrel of a gun. The company would call the governor, and the state militia would send soldiers to force the strikers back to work. It wouldn’t be uncommon for them to kill and imprison dozens who stood in their way.

The history of our great nation is littered with epic labor battles. Hundreds, maybe thousands, of Americans died defending their right to negotiate as one union rather than as helpless individuals.

It doesn’t take a PhD in economics to see that an individual worker doesn’t stand a chance of a fair negotiation with a $237 billion corporation like Wal-Mart, especially when unemployment is high. The corporation has so many applicants to choose from. It has all the power.

It’s that kind of power that allowed the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory to lock the doors and trap its workers.

That sort of thing doesn’t happen in America anymore, but it’s not because corporations had a change of heart. It’s because the Great Depression motivated Congress to stand behind workers who wish to form labor unions. It’s because the federal government stopped sending soldiers and started sending election supervisors. It’s because they investigated factory conditions and created laws to prevent the loss of innocent life.

This is what our government does. It’s what sets us apart from the destitute places of the world, where good, hard-working people have no protection from the warlords and factory bosses.

In the depths of the Great Depression, Americans watched the Congressional investigation of Wall Street with horror, as the wretched abuses of unregulated banks came to light. The great columnist Walter Lippmann summed up the national mood when he wrote, “No set of men, however honorable they may be, and however good their traditions, can be trusted with so much private power.”

Something to remember when the One Percent refuses to pay the taxes they paid in the booming 1990s, or when they blame the demise of the Twinkie on unions who took pay cuts while executive compensation was soaring.

The 99 Percent isn’t asking for a lot. An hourly wage that doesn’t leave their family in poverty would be nice. A guarantee that Social Security and Medicare will still be there when it’s their turn to retire. Maybe a few public schools that aren’t crumbling to the ground.

You know, the things that separate us from the Bangladesh’s of the world.

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This op-ed was published in today’s South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

The Bird and the Wolf

by Norman Horowitz

Last week, Eric Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House, denounced the “Occupy Wall Street” protests as “mobs,” and Michael Bloomberg, the Mayor of New York, charged demonstrators with “trying to take away the jobs of people working in this city.”

Cantor’s net worth is approximately $4.8 million. Bloomberg is worth $20 billion.

Cantor spent his childhood at the elite Collegiate School on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, where the annual tuition is $37,500. He then attended George Washington University, where the annual cost is $58,148. He received a Juris Doctor degree from William & Mary Law School, where the annual cost is $52,000. He also holds a Master’s in Real Estate Development from Columbia University, where the annual cost is approximately $54,000.

Bloomberg didn’t have an upbringing as privileged as Cantor’s, but he did attend Johns Hopkins University, where the annual tuition is $40,680, followed by Harvard Business School, where the annual cost is a whopping $84,000.   Continue reading “The Bird and the Wolf”

Quote of the Day: Bill Murray

INTERVIEWER: Last question. I have to know, because I love this story and want it to be true. There have been stories about you sneaking up behind people in New York City, covering their eyes with your hands, and saying: Guess who. And when they turn around, they see Bill Murray and hear the words “No one will ever believe you.”

BILL MURRAY: [long pause] I know. I know, I know, I know. I’ve heard about that from a lot of people. A lot of people. I don’t know what to say. There’s probably a really appropriate thing to say. Something exactly and just perfectly right[long beat, and then he breaks into a huge grin] But by God, it sounds crazy, doesn’t it? Just so crazy and unlikely and unusual?

— GQ Interview