Sadly, I was right.  

The U.S. Geological Survey has just completed a report on glaciers throughout Asia:

Rapid changes in the Himalaya is shown in India by the 12 percent retreat of Chhota Shigri Glacier during the last 13 years, as well as retreat of the Gangotri Glacier since 1780, with 12 percent shrinkage of the main stem in the last 16 years.

This retreat impacts water supplies to millions of people, increases the likelihood of outburst floods that threaten life and property in nearby areas, and contributes to sea-level rise.

“Of particular interest are the Himalaya, where glacier behavior impacts the quality of life of tens of millions of people,” said USGS scientist Jane Ferrigno. “Glaciers in the Himalaya are a major source of fresh water and supply meltwater to all of the rivers in northern India.”

Speaking of “the quality of life of tens of millions of people,” on October 17, 2009, I implored the U.S. government to increase food aid to developing nations to prevent the “humanitarian disaster” predicted by the UN’s World Food Programme.

Sadly, it fell on deaf ears.

A couple days ago, the UN “called an urgent meeting” to address “wheat shortages” and the resulting price hikes:

…a large number of member countries had expressed concern about a possible repeat of the food crisis two years ago.

The tense atmosphere in developing countries, where food costs up to 70% of family income, erupted in Mozambique this week in three days of riots that left seven people dead, hundreds injured and millions of dollars of damage.

Egyptians have also protested over food prices in recent months, and analysts have warned that riots could follow the jump in prices in Africa and the Middle East. The trend comes after the global recession already put a squeeze on household budgets and intensified the risk of malnutrition.

Save the Children reported last week that the number of severely malnourished children visiting its clinics in Niger has gone up fourfold since the start of the year.

I don’t like writing posts like this. Can we please do something about it?

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…according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, global glacier thickness has declined every year for the past 4+ decades. The most recent academic research I’ve seen was published 2 months ago, and it concluded that Antarctic ice loss has been vaster and faster than the IPCC predicted. Another paper published around the same time found that, based on historical evidence, Antarctica is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than previously thought.

When many people hear “glaciers,” they think of the Himalayas. One of the most startling predictions of the 2007 IPCC report was that this gorgeous region in South and East Asia will lose all its glaciers by 2035. If you trace that claim back to its original source, you find quotes in New Scientist and Indian magazine Down to Earth by Syed Hasnain, who studied the Himalayan glaciers for the International Commission on Snow and Ice. Hasnain, it turns out, made the prediction based on “speculation,” not evidence.

Let’s be clear about what this means: Nothing.  

Okay, it means something, but not nearly as much as the media might lead you to believe. It was a blunder, to be sure, and it requires an apology, a correction, and a full review of all melting ice and sea level rise predictions in the report. To its credit, the IPCC is not covering it up; it made an immediate public retraction.

Here’s what does matter, if you’re trying to form an opinion about climate change:

1. The Himalaya prediction was not based on evidence. All three of the research conclusions I cited yesterday (above) about ice melt are based on hard evidence: glacier thickness measurements and Antarctic ice measurements. All are facts about what happened, not predictions about what will happen.

2. One region does not represent global trends. To make that mistake is to fall prey to “selection bias,” which we talked about a couple days ago, or similarly, “small sample bias.” Statistical no-nos.

3. Courtesy of climate expert Joseph Romm, here is the latest evidence-based research:

Satellite data stunner: “Our data suggest that EAST Antarctica is losing mass…. Antarctica may soon be contributing significantly more to global sea-level rise.”

Nature: “Dynamic thinning of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet ocean margins is more sensitive, pervasive, enduring and important than previously realized.”

Large Antarctic glacier thinning 4 times faster than it was 10 years ago: “Nothing in the natural world is lost at an accelerating exponential rate like this glacier.”

De-Icer: USGS report details “recent dramatic shrinkage” in U.S. glaciers, matching global decline

The Arctic Ocean is full of rotten ice

World’s Glaciers Shrink for 18th Year

4. Just because the prediction is wrong doesn’t mean the trend is. The Himalaya glaciers may not disappear by 2035—and thank goodness for that—but they are melting, and if that trend doesn’t stop…well, they will disappear eventually.

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