On the basketball court, not a bad thing. In sports predictions, a shortcut to bankruptcy, guys named Vinny coming after you with a baseball bat, all that good stuff. There’s a fine line, you see, between rooting for a team and betting on them. And when you’re publishing your predictions for all the world to see, you might as well be forking over the mortgage.

You can root for bad teams all you want, and the only downside is you spend many grouchy mornings cursing the sports section. When you’re asked for a prediction, you’re supposed to put that aside and pick the team that you think can win. Not the one you want to win. The one you expect to win.

The neurons don’t fire in that part of my brain. There’s a short circuit. I make the incredible leap of logic that if I want them to win, then they’re going to win. No wonder I keep buying lottery tickets.

So let’s be clear: I want the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the NBA Championship. I have been a Shaquille O’Neal fan since I started playing this sport, and when you put him with the best player in the league, my brain starts doing jumping jacks. Forget all the complications. My brain has an astonishing ability to suppress what it doesn’t want to hear. The Cavs are going to win the NBA Championship. That’s called T.O. Logic, and it’s right because I said so.  

Given that background, you may be surprised to learn that I agree with your top 3, Coach. Celts, Magic, Cavs: in that order. Shaq’s teams have always been streaky, except for a few years with the Lakers when no one could touch him and Kobe. I like inconsistent teams. They make the heart beat a little faster, the ulcer sting a little stronger, the victory a little sweeter when they win the games no one expects them to win. I don’t expect the Cavs to put together a record like the Magic and Celts. Those two are very strong, consistent teams. I just expect LeBron and Shaq to turn it on when it counts: the playoffs. Shaq’s always been good at that.

He’s also been good at telling management what he wants, and he’s usually been right. So if he wants Stephen Jackson, I want Stephen Jackson.

And I’ve been hearing that mismatch argument his whole career. The thing is, the only player to ever pose a serious mismatch was Hakeem Olajuwon, and Shaq learned how to beat guys like him by the time Olajuwon’s reincarnation, Tim Duncan, came to town. So you can talk about fast guys and strong guys and guys who’ve got moves he’s never seen. He can beat them all.

On a related note, I’m going to go Old School on you again. I’ve never been impressed by the small-lineup, transition game the kids play these days. My teams are the teams of Chamberlain and Russell and Abdul-Jabbar. Michael Jordan was the exception, not the rule. And even he made his money on a half-court offense. You can run up and down the court all you like, but if you can’t score with five-on-five, half-court, against the best defense in the league, you can’t win a championship. Basketball isn’t a track meet. I know you’ve told your players that, Coach. Show me a good one-two inside-out, and I’ll show you a championship contender.

I love the Magic. If some great misfortune befalls the Cavs, I’ll rally behind the Magic. If the half-court one-two punch makes great teams, the truly legendary ones have a third wheel that make the team impossible to guard. You can double up on two guys at once, but at three the math falls apart. Remember Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and James Worthy? Or Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, and Elgin Baylor?  The Magic can’t hold a candle to those guys, but they’ve got enough to scare anyone in the league. If you’re not excited to see Jameer Nelson, Dwight Howard, and Vince Carter together, then you need to find a new sport to watch.

And the Celtics are scary good. Match their threesome against the Magic’s threesome, and we’re going to have some epic games. The trouble is, neither team can match up against the Cavs. You laugh now, but just wait.

For the Magic, you put Howard on Shaq, obviously. Then who’s going to guard LeBron? Vince Carter? Hardly a defensive powerhouse. Anderson? Brass? There are maybe three guys in the league who can guard LeBron reasonably well, and it ain’t them. Shaq will pull Howard out of the lane, and it’s the LeBron Show. The Magic get front row tickets for free. They should be grateful.

For the Celtics, I’m guessing Garnett on Shaq and Pierce on LeBron. You could try Rasheed Wallace on Shaq, but that’s going to result in a lot of dunks and a technical for Sheed’s whining. Nothing like watching a grown man cry after he gets dunked on. I’ll grant you this: The Celtics have the best defense in the NBA. And I’m the President of the “Defense Wins Championships” Club, so I’ve got a healthy respect for these guys. But I’m willing to bet that Garnett can’t guard Shaq and Ilgauskas at the same time. You think they’re a handicap, I say nightmare for any team that doesn’t have two solid big guys. Remember the Twin Towers? Okay, Ilgauskas doesn’t compare to David Robinson or Tim Duncan, but the point remains: Ilgauskas’s scoring average will go up this year, not down. Mark my words. And if Mike Brown has half the IQ I’m expecting from him, he’ll steal Gregg Popovich’s playbook and tire Garnett out on defense trying to protect the paint. (I remember Shaq stopping Robinson and Duncan at the same time, but that was before the defensive three-second, and Shaq was far better—and bigger—than Garnett in his prime.)

Now if Danny Ferry can just get us a three-point shooter, we’ll have that one-two-three combo that makes me so happy. What’s that you say? LeBron and Shaq are trying to get Stephen Jackson? Do I detect the scent of fear in the air? I think it’s coming from Massachusetts…

5, 4, 3, 2, 1: Bulls, Heat, Cavaliers, Magic, Celtics. And the Cavs go to the Finals.

You wanted an old war story? Here you go. It’s not mine, but the player in question had a similar career to mine…

1972-73 was Wilt Chamberlain’s last season in the NBA. He was 37 years old, same as Shaq is now. He wasn’t fortunate enough to be playing with the rising superstar of the league, so we’ll say Shaq has an advantage. Even so, Wilt won his 11th rebounding crown, led the Lakers to the Finals, and set the single season record for field goal percentage.

No, they’re not equals. No, their career paths are not similar, though each one is responsible for the league instituting a form of the three-second violation. Yes, they were both the most dominant players in the league in their prime in a way no other center has ever been (except maybe George Mikan). Yes, these stories have a similar ending, only Shaq gets the ring.

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This is about contenders.

There are only three legitimate teams primed to compete for the title in each conference. Barring freak injuries or mid-season blockbuster trades, that isn’t going to change. Some teams are willing to take the year off and wait to reap the riches of next offseason; others are hungry but just aren’t there yet. The teams that were at the top last year are back again this year, and have used a variety of ways to improve (or so they think). If the moves pay dividends, the Larry O’Brien Trophy may be back on the East Coast before long.  

5. MIAMI HEAT (Last year: 43-39)

Tony, I know it’s not a sure thing but this team is going to go as far as their superstar, Mr. Wade, is going to take them. And if he is healthy, that’s farther than Iguodala, Rose and Arenas.

Michael Beasley, once he gets his act together, has the potential to be a pretty good combination forward; an Antawn Jamison-lite. Right now, though, he’s more Derrick Coleman than anything…just replace the Coleman scowl with a Beasley look of apathy. Jermaine O’Neal‘s health has also been an issue but he hopes to put that behind him, and despite playing in the league for 14 years, just turned 31. He still might have enough in the tank to play center in the East for 65 games. Joel Anthony, the underrated Udonis Haslem and Jamaal Magloire can handle the other 17 as well as his backup minutes.

Aside from Wade, the backcourt only got stronger. Daequan Cook, who I love as a sixth man, is a year older and hopefully continues improving next to Wade (his career field goal percentages are both under 40%), while Mario Chalmers and veteran Carlos Arroyo bring some stability to the point guard position. Quentin Richardson, Dorell Wright, James Jones and Yakhouba Diawara bring depth to the small forward position as the Heat can go small (Wade at SG, Beasley at PF) or big (Wade at PG, Beasley at SF) depending on matchups and who’s hot (or healthy). They could also very well flip some assets – say, Jones, Anthony and Richardson’s expiring deal to Utah for Carlos Boozer and Kosta Koufos and truly become contenders.

And Tony: don’t ever compare Wade to Brett Favre unless he starts wearing Wranglers to postgame press conferences and retires in the offseason instead of becoming a free agent then signs with the New York Knicks during training camp (Zing!).

4. ATLANTA HAWKS (Last year: 47-35)

People have been forgetting about the Hawks for long enough. Hell, even I forgot them trying to name all 30 teams on one of those quiz web sites a few years back. Most fans can’t even name half their roster.

The team’s slogan for 2009? “Now you know.” Yes, yes I do.

People need to start respecting Atlanta. This was a team that took the 2007 champion Boston Celtics to seven games, then got better. This was the team that knocked Miami out of the playoffs last year before getting swept by Cleveland, then got better.

This is a good basketball team. Not great, but good.

Joe Johnson is an All-Star and leads the team. Despite an underwhelming postseason last year, he is still a top-tier scorer and a decent perimeter defender who can guard 2s and 3s. Josh Smith is just as versatile and just started to realize how effective he can be offensively is he cuts down on jump shots and attacks the basket. The opposite goes to fellow forward Marvin Williams, who helped space the floor with a 35% three point percentage in 2008. The interchangeability of the roster is probably second only to Orlando’s in effectiveness. Johnson and offseason acquisition Jamal Crawford can play both guard spots to accommodate Mike Bibby, Maurice Evans and rookie Jeff Teague, Williams and Josh Smith are hybrid forwards (while Johnson can even play small forward) and Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia and Joe Smith are a three-headed monster in the frontcourt.

The roster is deeper than an average fan would think, and if each member of the rotation plays up to the standards they have in the past two seasons, Mike Woodson‘s gang will be in contention for home-court advantage in the playoffs once again.

3. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (Last year: 66-16)

As LeBron James (arguably) gets better, his team’s record will get worse.

66-16 will not happen again; the LeBron-based offense was great last season while John Kuester ran things. Mike Brown will again make this a pretty good defensive group, at least on the perimeter. Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Shaquille O’Neal together on the floor at the same time is not going to bode well when so many teams play a versatile player at the 4 (and sometimes at the 5; you try and explain to me how either of those guys guards Chris Bosh, Josh Smith, Amar’e Stoudemire or LaMarcus Aldridge).

Speaking of Shaq, I hate to break your heart kind editor sir, but he just doesn’t fit here. He still commands respect in the post but remember that every second the ball is in his hands it is out of LeBron’s. Whether it is intentional or not, he is taking some of the drive-and-dish out of the King’s game.

All in all I think the Cavs overreacted by getting Shaq. That’s like Marc Cuban acquiring a bunch of combo guards like Randy Foye, Leandro Barbosa and Nate Robinson because nobody on the Mavericks could stop Monta Ellis or Baron Davis when Dallas got swept a few years ago. Shaq was acquired for two reasons: to put a body on Dwight Howard (which statistically has worked in the past, I’ll give them that) and to keep LeBron in town.

Anything short of a championship and Cleveland has a potential disaster situation on its hands next offseason. And if Shaq and LeBron clamoring for a Stephen Jackson trade is any sign, I have a feeling I already know the ending to this storybook.

2. ORLANDO MAGIC (Last year: 59-23)

Retooled and reloaded, the Magic are trying to go to back-to-back NBA Finals. Hey, look what it did for the Lakers!

It was dangerous for Orlando to take the chances it did from a chemistry perspective; Hedo Turkoglu was an emotional leader and point forward, Courtney Lee was an unheralded, gritty rookie defender. Rafer Alston filled in admirably for an injured Jameer Nelson. Meanwhile, Vince Carter sat at home with a loser label firmly stapled to his forehead.

Now Carter is in Orlando and Hedo Turkoglu passed through customs into Canada while Lee and Alston were banished to New Jersey. Joining Carter are forwards Ryan Anderson (who is absolutely terrific at what he does), Brandon Bass (who is absolutely terrific at what he does) and Matt Barnes (who is absolutely terr…err…you get the idea). Plus, Nelson is healthy and Howard has been in the gym refining his game. What isn’t there to like?

Detractors of the Magic will point to Stan Van Gundy and his not-so-stellar postseason coaching moves. They’ll point to Howard’s free throw percentage, Carter’s lack of defensive prowess (though he’s no worse than Turkoglu) and the obvious chemistry issues that come with turning over half of a rotation from a team that reached the Finals a year previous.

Orlando wants to win now and they want to contend for the foreseeable future. Last year may have definitely been a fluke in that Boston was ravaged by injuries and Cleveland’s supporting staff disappeared in the playoffs, but Orlando wasn’t leaving anything to chance. If their big offseason gambles pay off, which I feel they will, this is a scary good team and one of the few title contenders.

1. BOSTON CELTICS (Last year: 62-20)

The team that won it all two years ago has reincarnated, and the results so far have been scary good. Kevin Garnett is healthy, Paul Pierce is still a terrific small forward and Ray Allen can still shoot even if everything else has been on the decline.

Take out James Posey and add Marquis Daniels; Daniels does more all-around but Posey was probably a more tenacious defender. Substitute Rasheed Wallace for P.J. Brown (a slight improvement offensively but likely a dropoff defensively) and take away Leon Powe and give extended minutes to Glen Davis as well as Shelden Williams (a wash). Everything else is the same, and Stephon Marbury is no longer in Celtic green. That’s got to be a good thing.

Tom Thibodeau has turned down multiple coaching gigs to stay in Beantown and do what he does best: teach defense. He and Doc Rivers have preached it and the intensity of Garnett has been contagious. They are, year in and year out, the most tenacious team defenders in the league and it shows. In an NBA where one-on-one is emphasized and highlighted, Boston wears individuals down and makes every team work for every basket – almost like a throwback to the “no layups” Detroit Pistons of the late 1980s and early ’90s that dogged Michael Jordan everywhere he went. The Celts did it to Kobe last year and have also done it to LeBron and Wade in the past; if those three can’t overcome the Celtics’ suffocating D, I see no reason why anyone else can. That is why I am selecting Boston as the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Whether they make it to the Finals or go all the way remains for another day…

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