NL Central

Not much to say about this one. With just weeks remaining in the regular season, the St. Louis Cardinals continue to slide and the Cincinnati Reds are holding steady, keeping a comfortable lead and inching closer to wrapping up the division.

A few years ago, I came out and touted the Reds as an up-and-coming team. People thought I was joking. Okay, I half-was. But I enjoyed watching them when they were occasionally on television (usually against the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Phillies) and checking their box scores. It was like watching a young child grow up before my very eyes now, two years later, where first baseman Joey Votto is turning in an MVP season, second baseman Brandon Phillips is performing extremely well in the field and at the plate, and various others have filled roles, come up in clutch spots and played hard for Dusty Baker. A consummate players’ coach, Baker has done well to not let his team get complacent; they were one of the few teams in the majors this year to not go on a terrible losing streak, though they never were red hot either. A 6-game winning streak in August and a 5-game losing streak in September were anomalies. Everything else was consistent.  

Their pitching rotation isn’t the best – two starters ERAs are above 4 (and former ace Aaron Harang’s was a 5, though he was hurt for a month and now pitches out of the bullpen), but their bullpen has been one of the best in the game. The late-season addition of Aroldis Chapman, a hard-throwing lefty rookie who reaches the 100s routinely, could have a similar effect to David Price on the Rays in 2008.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, trailed off late in the season, coinciding with young centerfielder Colby Rasmus complaining about team chemistry. Albert Pujols was himself throughout the season, and the pitching was as good as a Tony LaRussa-run team typically is, but something intangible was missing. And before they knew it, they were on the outside looking in for the third time in four years after a pair of World Series appearances earlier in the decade. Changes may be coming in St. Louis before Pujols’ prime is over.

Prediction: Reds

NL West

Here’s where it gets interesting. Ask me the same question in July and I would’ve given you the exact opposite answer.

You see, rolling out of the All-Star break, the San Diego Padres were the hottest team in the National League, a strong bullpen and an unheralded yet efficient offense built around All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The pitching rotation boasted an excellent season from Mat Latos and several other solid starters such as Jon Garland and Clayton Richard. The bullpen was, for almost the entire season, the best when it came to strikeouts, ERA, hits allowed and holds. They played well with the lead and often kept it, utilizing a versatile lineup and smart managerial decisions from Bud Black to carve a double-digit lead in what was predicted to be a competitive division.

Then, in late August and early September — when it matters most — they started losing. And losing. And losing some more. Before you knew it, the pundits were proven right once again, as San Francisco and Colorado streaked into contention once more. The Rockies have especially been hot, winning in a similar fashion that preceded their World Series run a few years back. The Giants have been getting by, winning tight games with good pitching and clutch hitting. Of the three, I’d hate most to see Colorado in the playoffs as my opponent simply because of two things: their offensive prowess in the heart of the order, and facing Cy Young candidate Ubaldo Jiminez once every four games.

So who will win? The Padres have righted the ship lately, and were tied with the Giants for the division lead. The Rockies were two back but had a more favorable schedule down the stretch. None of them were rallying (San Diego and San Francisco were 5-5 in their last 10; Colorado was 6-4), and all of them were showing some fatigue that often comes late in the year. Ultimately, I believe the Giants have the best chance because of their pitching staff, Rookie of the Year candidate Buster Posey and solid, top-to-bottom lineup.

Prediction: Giants

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The raucous crowds. The shrill whistles. The crunch of body-to-body collisions and 800-plus-pound pileups. And of course, the drowned-out playcalling on a mic’ed up field general.

Yes, sports fans, football is back.

But you know what? I’m not your typical sports fan.  

I’d prefer the pop of a glove, the crack of the bat, the whistle of the ball, the call of an umpire muffled behind a mask.

And hey, they don’t call it the “Fall Classic” for no reason.

I’m no baseball apologist and openly admit that football is low on my list of favorite sports; I just never got it as a kid. But baseball, oh my beloved baseball, how it quells all cravings through a good portion of the year, tiding over the time of year where no football games are played with contact, no meaningful basketball is played, and hockey sticks are stowed away til colder weather comes. Yes, the World Cup gave soccer center stage for a few weeks this July, but the focus of the sports world is solely on baseball for the longest out of the “major” sports.

As well it should. Baseball is not for everyone, but for those who enjoy it, they deserve it to be their sole focus.

While football teams have a couple weeks to feel out one another and, to borrow a cliche’, separate pretenders from contenders, Major League Baseball’s hottest month is coming to a boil. Pennant races are open in both leagues, wild card berths to be had. Eight teams will make the playoffs in October; right now, 14 teams are contending and no spot is settled with just three weeks left in the season.

So where do we go from here?

Oh yeah, to a preview of what’s to come. In the upcoming days, I will preview the rest of the divisions in each league, and make bold predictions for the playoffs. Enjoy baseball while you can. Football can wait. So can hockey. And basketball. Because before you know it, October will be gone, snow will be on the ground in the Northeast, and all other sports will enjoy their time in the spotlight. Then, once the snow thaws, it’ll be all about America’s Pasttime once again.

National League East

The NL East has been the hub of attention for a multitude of reasons:

1. Most media coverage is East Coast-centric.
2. The Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies, two well-known teams, are rekindling a rivalry after several years of Atlanta dormancy.
3. The Phillies, who recently overtook the Braves for the division lead (and best record in the NL), are fresh off back-to-back NL champions and World Series appearances.

Whichever team wins this division will likely have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs thanks to a surprising National League victory in the All-Star game. The Phillies, a local favorite of mine, have a top-tier pitching rotation that, according to some experts, could send a Roy Halladay-Cole Hamels-Roy Oswalt trio at the Atlanta Braves in BOTH upcoming series. The Braves aren’t slouches either, with Tim Hudson having a fantastic season and second-year pro Tommy Hanson pitching solidly behind him. Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens, despite uncharacteristic ERAs above 4, bring big-game experience to the table.

The problem with the Braves is that their offense is slumping at the wrong time. Their August acquisition of 1B Derrek Lee has done little (he was hitting under .250 for a good portion of his tenure with Atlanta), and were averaging under 4 runs per game in September. A lack of run support could doom a team this late in the year.

The Phillies’ bats, meanwhile, woke up at the right time; rather, I should say the players wielding them got healthy at the right time. Most of Philadelphia’s roster dealt with time on the disabled list, but the team has adjusted, other players have stepped up, and as previously mentioned, the starting pitching has been excellent at least 60 percent of the time.

Hamels knows a bit about run support – he lacked it for a good part of the year. In September, though, Philly is averaging 5.5 runs per game in that same span.

One might argue that the Phillies might be overusing the three aces’ arms in September, and that it could come back to haunt them. To those critics, I say this: they have to get there first.

Atlanta is struggling at the wrong time. The Braves and the Phillies face each other six times down the stretch, including the final three games of the regular season. Atlanta’s offensive studs this season have been Omar Infante and Martin Prado, while rookie Jason Hayward has been very good and Brian McCann has lived up to his All-Star status. The four of them, however, pale in comparison when laid out next to the Phillies’ roster, including a scalding hot Shane Victorino, a clutch Carlos Ruiz, steadily-stellar Placido Polanco and a healthy Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. That isn’t even mentioning former NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, lefty masher Raul Ibanez or hot-and-cold righty Jayson Werth.

Edge: Phillies

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10. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (Last year’s record: 19-63)

Blake Griffin, once he finally gets out onto the court, will make this team less unbearable to watch. Second-year shooting guard Eric Gordon has improved steadily but is also dealing with injuries, while no one can ever be sure the likes of Baron Davis and Marcus Camby can make it through 82 games without falling apart. Still, a team with this many question marks might still be better than the bottom-feeders of the West in 2009-10 because they have actual talent.

No, Ricky Davis and Sebastian Telfair don’t count. Nor does coach/GM Mike Dunleavy.

Aside from the walking wounded I already mentioned, Craig Smith brings great energy to the frontcourt, Al Thornton can score in a variety of ways (though he is best served off the bench), Rasual Butler can shoot and play both swing spots and Chris Kaman, whether anyone wants to believe it or not, is playing like a top 5 center so far despite his gross amount of turnovers. Once Griffin and Gordon are healthy (hopefully at the same time), I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team string together a near-.500 record with them on the court. The problem, though, is that they may be 10 games under .500 before that happens.  

9. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (Last year’s record: 49-33)

Part of me really, really feels bad for Chris Paul.

He can put up 20 points, 10 assists, 5 rebounds and 3 steals per night in his sleep, yet his team is destined to bumble towards mediocrity for the second straight year. Last season, pundits blamed oft-injured center Tyson Chandler for it, noting the lack of interior defense without him around. The Hornets tried to move him to Oklahoma City before a lingering injury voided the deal. Now Chandler is in Charlotte, traded for a better player in Emeka Okafor.

But is he a better fit? I think he’ll do more offensively, which will cause David West’s All-Star level numbers to dip a bit, but I’m not so sure Okafor or Chandler are really the defenders they’re made out to be. Nobody else on this team is, either; James Posey is on the wrong side of his prime by now and Peja Stojakovic, who never was even a good defender, is now relegated to life as a spot shooter. The rest of the team is just in shambles – rookies (Marcus Thornton, Darren Collison), raw young vets (Bobby Brown, Hilton Armstrong, Julian Wright, Ike Diogu) and old, washed up vets (Posey, Morris Peterson, Sean Marks). With patience running thin, both Paul and Byron Scott may be looking for a way out, and management will likely be reluctant to let their star point guard depart.

The coach, however? He’s probably good as gone. It’s the last year of his contract anyway. UPDATE: Ian originally sent this to me Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday, Scott was fired and general manager Jeff Bower was appointed interim coach in his place. See? Sometimes we do know what we’re talking about.

8. HOUSTON ROCKETS (Last year’s record: 53-29)

Rick Adelman is and always will be one of my favorite coaches ever. For some reason, every team he coaches overachieves like crazy and plays their hearts out for him. This Houston Rockets team is no different. Despite a plague of injuries hitting the squad’s two  best players, Yao Ming (out for the season) and Tracy McGrady (out for at least another few weeks), this team has performed respectably well throughout the regular seasons and playoffs in the past few years.

New signee Trevor Ariza is expected to take the place of departed Ron Artest, but he will have some help picking up the slack. New center David Andersen will help Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry in the post, the tandem of Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry should be solid enough to man the point guard spot and Shane Battier and Luis Scola will, as ex-Rocket center Dikembe Mutombo always says, “do what they do best.”

Don’t sleep on rookie Chase Budinger either; he fits really well in a winning system because he can knock down a jump shot. If McGrady becomes a factor this year he, Ariza and Battier can theoretically be on the court together with a combination like Scola and Landry to make a formidable lineup. It’s not going to be one that sets the world on fire, but this team was a joy to watch last postseason and it should be no different this year when Houston looks to qualify for the playoffs yet again with a scrappy, hustle-centric attitude and Adelman to spur them on.

7. UTAH JAZZ (Last year’s record: 48-34)

Jerry Sloan has missed the playoffs once in his tenure with the Jazz, and despite the West being a tough and fairly even division, Utah should still be in contention with the very best until season’s end.

Deron Williams is one of the three best point men in the league, and he isn’t coupled with one go-to scorer; Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Paul Millsap and Andrei Kirilenko hold down the frontcourt and each bring a different dimension, while Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and rookie Wesley Matthews join Williams in the backcourt. Matthews, not one of the most heavily sought after rooks (he wasn’t even Utah’s first pick; Eric Maynor was), fits the Utah system perfectly. Almost everyone here does.

Everyone but Carlos Boozer.

Everything was up in air with everyone assuming Boozer was as good as gone when Utah matched offers to Millsap and revealed intentions to start the rebounding whiz. Boozer hasn’t been a great player so far, and it’s looking more and more like he’ll be an odd man out. If Utah can work a trade for a defensive-minded true center to compliment Okur, as well as another possible perimeter shooter, the Jazz can probably climb up to a fifth or sixth seed. How about Boozer’s expiring deal to the Milwaukee Bucks for center Dan Gadzuric, combo guard Charlie Bell and expiring contract Francisco Elson (yes, he’s a contract. Nothing else. Just a 6-10 piece of paper)?

The biggest obstacle for the Jazz right now is getting everyone on the same page. If there are any point men in the league who can do it, Williams is one of them.

6. PHOENIX SUNS (Last year’s record: 46-36)

This year, the Phoenix Suns will likely go back to their fun-to-watch, up-tempo ways under Alvin Gentry for a full season. And while it still won’t get them into title contention, it won’t push them all the way out of the playoffs, either.

Steve Nash is rested and looks healthier than he has in recent years. Channing Frye and a healthy Amar’e Stoudemire are versatile big men, Grant Hill is still solid and Jason Richardson is a former 20 point per game scorer. Their bench isn’t incredibly deep, but Leandro Barbosa, Jared Dudley and Lou Amundson help in different ways. Goran Dragic will be a bit better after a year in the league and Robin Lopez will be better off as an energy big off the bench. Alando Tucker and rookie Earl Clark do a little bit of everything too, and will be brought along slowly behind more experienced players barring injury.

The big difference here – and I know you’ll take offense to this, Tony – is the departure of Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq took up far too much space in the lane and didn’t do anything unpredictable for the Suns and their slashing, drive-and-dish efforts were dashed every time he camped out in the lane. Players should find themselves open more this season as defenses have to respect the drives of Nash, Barbosa and Stoudemire with shooters waiting all over. Frye, at 6’11, may be one of the team’s best perimeter shooters. Can anyone say that about Shaq?

Phoenix is going to be fun to watch again, which is good for the league. They’ll be competitive again, which is good for the league. And yet again, they won’t be good enough to make a deep run into the playoffs. Again, good for the league, since defense still wins championships and the Suns (except for Lopez and Dudley) still don’t have enough of it.

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I’ve been following a true feel-good story about a small private school’s girls’ volleyball team, the program just six years, making a championship run. During my coverage, I made a few different references to volleyball as the ultimate game of momentum, and to a point that’s true. It’s also true of the NBA’s Western Conference, where momentum will be key to deciding who’s left standing at the end of the regular season.

All of the contenders made significant moves to bolster their rosters. Each is coming to a realization that whoever is the healthiest at the end of the year and playing the best has the greatest opportunity to go all the way. So basically, what I’m saying is this: expect a lot of rest for guys like Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol and anybody else who shows a little limp or makes some winces. Health is of the essence to each of the top teams since so little separates them talent-wise.

At the bottom though, it’s where the poor got poorer for the most part, a sad but true reality of most professional sports these days (boy, do I sound about 60 or what?).  

15. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (Last year: 24-58)

This team has fallen so far from grace since the legendary (and somewhat underrated, both as an analyst and coach) Hubie Brown led them to the playoffs. It seems like eons ago. The chemistry on this squad has proven combustible just a week in; while Zach Randolph is a solid player and has kept his ego in check, he’s just not a winner. Allen Iverson is already complaining about a lack of playing time, Rudy Gay hasn’t diversified his game since leaving UConn and O.J. Mayo will likely regress statistically since he won’t have the ball in his hands as much.

There are some positives. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley should be better than they were last season and Mayo has an opportunity to grow and be the leader Gay hasn’t developed into. Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and Sam Young are an intriguing group of rookies and the younger players on this team should get the playing time now to develop into something later. The obvious problem with that, though, is ticking off Iverson, Randolph and Gay. It’s a lose-lose situation for coach Lionel Hollins and GM Chris Wallace.

But they asked for it. They didn’t get anything worthwhile for Pau Gasol. They made questionable offseason acquisitions. They even had opportunities with their number two pick to get more assets via trade or take a player like James Harden, who could compliment Mayo very well. Those are three strikes too many, and that’s the main reason why I see them bringing up the rear in the Western Conference standings.

14. SACRAMENTO KINGS (Last year: 17-65)

My team on the West Coast. I don’t know what will be more frustrating for me: watching and following Sacramento (who I know will be pretty bad and take their lumps this year) or Philly, who seems primed to underachieve this year when they could be pretty good.

Sacramento has plenty to be happy about for the future. Kevin Martin, when he’s healthy, is one of the most unique scorers in the game in that there’s no good way to guard him; play him too tight and he’ll blow past you for a layup or a pair of free throws. Play him loose and he’ll bury three or four straight jumpers in your face. I like Kevin Martin. There should be more shooting guards like him rather than Dahntay Joneses who get fat contracts for being able to jump really high and play decent defense. Spencer Hawes is a cool big man with Vlade Divac-lite skills, Jason Thompson will be a solid power forward for years to come and Tyreke Evans might turn out to be a good combo guard.

But I was fuming once the Kings decided not to take Ricky Rubio. It was the perfect situation in my slightly biased eyes, too. That one pick up may have been the dealbreaker to get him to come over and play this year with athletic young guys. Jon Brockman was a great value acquisition for them too. Paul Westphal? Not so much. I would’ve much rather had Kurt Rambis. But alas, both Rambis and Rubio are in Minnesota now. I might just have to change allegiances…

13. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (Last year: 29-53)

Don Nelson ruined a great opportunity yet again.

I used to love watching “Nellie-ball,” and his innovative tactics were called genius for so long. Then everyone else looked at what he was doing, tinkered with it, improved on it and now it’s not so special anymore. And despite a roster that should suggest otherwise, he continues to kill chemistry and force position problems like nobody’s business.

I, for one, am sick of it. This could be a damn exciting team. It was when they knocked off the Mavericks a few years ago with spirited, up-tempo play, some knock-down shooters and a few gritty, grizzly defenders. Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf bring that to the frontcourt, but neither is a very efficient scorer so they don’t play together often. Younger forwards like Anthony Randolph and Brandan Wright show great promise (though Wright is injured), but another Nelson favorite – fluctuating rotations – prevents them from getting consistent minutes. Corey Maggette doesn’t defend and is a few years past his prime, while Stephen Jackson is on the trading block.

The backcourt, Jackson included, isn’t much better of a situation. Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis are playing alongside one another while Kelenna Azubuike and Anthony Morrow bring depth off of the bench. All four are fine players in their own right but splitting 96 minutes between those four and Jackson just isn’t going to get it done against other teams’ best perimeter players. The rest of the roster is full of castoffs (Mikki Moore, Devean George, Craig “don’t call me Speedy” Claxton) and underwhelming young players (C.J. Watson, Acie Law). It will be a long year.

12. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (Last year: 24-58)

Finally, a glimmer of hope! Rambis and Rubio, already mentioned, are a good start for T’Wolves GM David Kahn even though Rubio may not be in green and black again until 2012 at the ripe old age of 21. Rambis putting the triangle into motion should be nice to see once they acquire some shooters. Al Jefferson and Kevin Love are a good complimentary duo and Jonny Flynn and Ramon Sessions should tide the point guard spot over and perhaps give Kahn more flexibility once the eventual time comes to move one of his perimeter players.

I’m not a big fan of Corey Brewer since it looks like he won’t develop into anything special like people perceived when he came out of Florida. Wayne Ellington is a stopgap more than a solution. Damien Wilkins and Sasha Pavlovic aren’t the answer, either. I’d like to see Kahn get his hands dirty trying to grab a nice wing player through either free agency or the draft; not too many young guards are moved midseason via trade and I’m okay with that.

This team’s resilient fanbase saw a lot of Kevin Garnett-led teams fall short year after year. Patience is the main virtue here. There will be nights when they compete with the best and others when they lose to the worst. A slight improvement in their record isn’t out of the question, but a top 10 draft choice would be ideal in getting the Wolves’ roster to shape up quicker than expected. My choices? West Virginia’s Devin Ebanks (more of a small forward at this point, but a better offensive player than Brewer) and Ohio State’s Evan Turner. Neither would a focal point but could knock down a jumper with consistency – a big deal in the triangle offense.

11. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (Last year: 23-59)

Behind Scott Brooks the Thunder looked good to close out the season in 2008-09 and got a lot of estranged bandwagon fans in the offseason. People are already christening them the next Portland Trailblazers – building off of stockpiled youth and a versatile focal player (Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant) – but the Thunder still have a long way to go.

Harden was a smooth pickup and should compliment Russell Westbrook nicely in the backcourt. Durant is as good as they come scoring-wise but still needs work on other facets of his game. Jeff Green is good too, but not a full-time power forward and he could likely be moved. Minnesota, on second thought, would be a good destination for him (Green for Pavlovic and intriguing young center Oleksiy Pecherov…BOOK IT!). Nenad Krstic was an under-the-rader move which helps, while Nick Collison and Thabo Sefolosha are strong defenders and nice pieces for any team to have. The Thunder will be trigger-shy to give them up to contenders as they wait to contend, but as I said, it will be awhile. Younger bigs like B.J. Mullens and Serge Ibaka (whom I wish about five other teams selected) are a ways away from contributing on the big stage.

The teams listed ahead of Oklahoma City, with two exceptions, are still a few steps ahead and will likely stay in contention for a fairly long timeframe. OKC needs some patience and a little bit of free agent activity – they have enough youth and need more Etan Thomas-type players at this juncture – as it slowly builds momentum. I like the idea, and with some refining this should be a good team in a few short years.

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This is about contenders.

There are only three legitimate teams primed to compete for the title in each conference. Barring freak injuries or mid-season blockbuster trades, that isn’t going to change. Some teams are willing to take the year off and wait to reap the riches of next offseason; others are hungry but just aren’t there yet. The teams that were at the top last year are back again this year, and have used a variety of ways to improve (or so they think). If the moves pay dividends, the Larry O’Brien Trophy may be back on the East Coast before long.  

5. MIAMI HEAT (Last year: 43-39)

Tony, I know it’s not a sure thing but this team is going to go as far as their superstar, Mr. Wade, is going to take them. And if he is healthy, that’s farther than Iguodala, Rose and Arenas.

Michael Beasley, once he gets his act together, has the potential to be a pretty good combination forward; an Antawn Jamison-lite. Right now, though, he’s more Derrick Coleman than anything…just replace the Coleman scowl with a Beasley look of apathy. Jermaine O’Neal‘s health has also been an issue but he hopes to put that behind him, and despite playing in the league for 14 years, just turned 31. He still might have enough in the tank to play center in the East for 65 games. Joel Anthony, the underrated Udonis Haslem and Jamaal Magloire can handle the other 17 as well as his backup minutes.

Aside from Wade, the backcourt only got stronger. Daequan Cook, who I love as a sixth man, is a year older and hopefully continues improving next to Wade (his career field goal percentages are both under 40%), while Mario Chalmers and veteran Carlos Arroyo bring some stability to the point guard position. Quentin Richardson, Dorell Wright, James Jones and Yakhouba Diawara bring depth to the small forward position as the Heat can go small (Wade at SG, Beasley at PF) or big (Wade at PG, Beasley at SF) depending on matchups and who’s hot (or healthy). They could also very well flip some assets – say, Jones, Anthony and Richardson’s expiring deal to Utah for Carlos Boozer and Kosta Koufos and truly become contenders.

And Tony: don’t ever compare Wade to Brett Favre unless he starts wearing Wranglers to postgame press conferences and retires in the offseason instead of becoming a free agent then signs with the New York Knicks during training camp (Zing!).

4. ATLANTA HAWKS (Last year: 47-35)

People have been forgetting about the Hawks for long enough. Hell, even I forgot them trying to name all 30 teams on one of those quiz web sites a few years back. Most fans can’t even name half their roster.

The team’s slogan for 2009? “Now you know.” Yes, yes I do.

People need to start respecting Atlanta. This was a team that took the 2007 champion Boston Celtics to seven games, then got better. This was the team that knocked Miami out of the playoffs last year before getting swept by Cleveland, then got better.

This is a good basketball team. Not great, but good.

Joe Johnson is an All-Star and leads the team. Despite an underwhelming postseason last year, he is still a top-tier scorer and a decent perimeter defender who can guard 2s and 3s. Josh Smith is just as versatile and just started to realize how effective he can be offensively is he cuts down on jump shots and attacks the basket. The opposite goes to fellow forward Marvin Williams, who helped space the floor with a 35% three point percentage in 2008. The interchangeability of the roster is probably second only to Orlando’s in effectiveness. Johnson and offseason acquisition Jamal Crawford can play both guard spots to accommodate Mike Bibby, Maurice Evans and rookie Jeff Teague, Williams and Josh Smith are hybrid forwards (while Johnson can even play small forward) and Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia and Joe Smith are a three-headed monster in the frontcourt.

The roster is deeper than an average fan would think, and if each member of the rotation plays up to the standards they have in the past two seasons, Mike Woodson‘s gang will be in contention for home-court advantage in the playoffs once again.

3. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (Last year: 66-16)

As LeBron James (arguably) gets better, his team’s record will get worse.

66-16 will not happen again; the LeBron-based offense was great last season while John Kuester ran things. Mike Brown will again make this a pretty good defensive group, at least on the perimeter. Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Shaquille O’Neal together on the floor at the same time is not going to bode well when so many teams play a versatile player at the 4 (and sometimes at the 5; you try and explain to me how either of those guys guards Chris Bosh, Josh Smith, Amar’e Stoudemire or LaMarcus Aldridge).

Speaking of Shaq, I hate to break your heart kind editor sir, but he just doesn’t fit here. He still commands respect in the post but remember that every second the ball is in his hands it is out of LeBron’s. Whether it is intentional or not, he is taking some of the drive-and-dish out of the King’s game.

All in all I think the Cavs overreacted by getting Shaq. That’s like Marc Cuban acquiring a bunch of combo guards like Randy Foye, Leandro Barbosa and Nate Robinson because nobody on the Mavericks could stop Monta Ellis or Baron Davis when Dallas got swept a few years ago. Shaq was acquired for two reasons: to put a body on Dwight Howard (which statistically has worked in the past, I’ll give them that) and to keep LeBron in town.

Anything short of a championship and Cleveland has a potential disaster situation on its hands next offseason. And if Shaq and LeBron clamoring for a Stephen Jackson trade is any sign, I have a feeling I already know the ending to this storybook.

2. ORLANDO MAGIC (Last year: 59-23)

Retooled and reloaded, the Magic are trying to go to back-to-back NBA Finals. Hey, look what it did for the Lakers!

It was dangerous for Orlando to take the chances it did from a chemistry perspective; Hedo Turkoglu was an emotional leader and point forward, Courtney Lee was an unheralded, gritty rookie defender. Rafer Alston filled in admirably for an injured Jameer Nelson. Meanwhile, Vince Carter sat at home with a loser label firmly stapled to his forehead.

Now Carter is in Orlando and Hedo Turkoglu passed through customs into Canada while Lee and Alston were banished to New Jersey. Joining Carter are forwards Ryan Anderson (who is absolutely terrific at what he does), Brandon Bass (who is absolutely terrific at what he does) and Matt Barnes (who is absolutely terr…err…you get the idea). Plus, Nelson is healthy and Howard has been in the gym refining his game. What isn’t there to like?

Detractors of the Magic will point to Stan Van Gundy and his not-so-stellar postseason coaching moves. They’ll point to Howard’s free throw percentage, Carter’s lack of defensive prowess (though he’s no worse than Turkoglu) and the obvious chemistry issues that come with turning over half of a rotation from a team that reached the Finals a year previous.

Orlando wants to win now and they want to contend for the foreseeable future. Last year may have definitely been a fluke in that Boston was ravaged by injuries and Cleveland’s supporting staff disappeared in the playoffs, but Orlando wasn’t leaving anything to chance. If their big offseason gambles pay off, which I feel they will, this is a scary good team and one of the few title contenders.

1. BOSTON CELTICS (Last year: 62-20)

The team that won it all two years ago has reincarnated, and the results so far have been scary good. Kevin Garnett is healthy, Paul Pierce is still a terrific small forward and Ray Allen can still shoot even if everything else has been on the decline.

Take out James Posey and add Marquis Daniels; Daniels does more all-around but Posey was probably a more tenacious defender. Substitute Rasheed Wallace for P.J. Brown (a slight improvement offensively but likely a dropoff defensively) and take away Leon Powe and give extended minutes to Glen Davis as well as Shelden Williams (a wash). Everything else is the same, and Stephon Marbury is no longer in Celtic green. That’s got to be a good thing.

Tom Thibodeau has turned down multiple coaching gigs to stay in Beantown and do what he does best: teach defense. He and Doc Rivers have preached it and the intensity of Garnett has been contagious. They are, year in and year out, the most tenacious team defenders in the league and it shows. In an NBA where one-on-one is emphasized and highlighted, Boston wears individuals down and makes every team work for every basket – almost like a throwback to the “no layups” Detroit Pistons of the late 1980s and early ’90s that dogged Michael Jordan everywhere he went. The Celts did it to Kobe last year and have also done it to LeBron and Wade in the past; if those three can’t overcome the Celtics’ suffocating D, I see no reason why anyone else can. That is why I am selecting Boston as the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Whether they make it to the Finals or go all the way remains for another day…

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